India's Agricultural Policies Must Be Reformed To Reduce Impact Of Adverse Monsoon

The recent heat-wave warning in Orissa sheds light on the credibility of the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) prediction of a normal southwest monsoon this year.

According to the IMD's forecast, the total rainfall from June to September will be between 96-104% of the long-term average of 868.6 mm.

However, this average has never been a reliable indicator due to its inability to provide accurate information about the spatial distribution of rainfall. Moreover, with climate change causing unpredictable weather patterns, the temporal sequence of precipitation has become just as crucial as its spatial distribution.

Last year's heatwave occurred during a critical time when wheat was maturing on the stalk in India. The country had high hopes for a bountiful harvest, and the government had announced plans to export wheat to counteract the spike in global cereal prices caused by the war in Ukraine.

Unfortunately, the heatwave caused the wheat to shrivel instead of maturing into a golden harvest. As a result, India had to reduce state procurement of the grain and prohibit exports, which prevented the country from helping food-grain importing nations.

The monsoon this year has been abundant, but the wheat harvest has been adversely affected by unexpected rains. As a result, the quality of the crop has been compromised, although the overall yield hasn't been significantly impacted yet.

According to reports, the government of Punjab has requested the central government to ease the quality standards for wheat procurement. While this move may help spare politicians from facing the wrath of unhappy farmers, it will also put a burden on the Food Corporation by adding more damaged stocks to their inventory.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast, India is likely to receive adequate rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season, which is more optimistic than the prediction made by the private forecaster Skymet. However, Skymet has warned of deficient rainfall due to the El Nino phenomenon, which is responsible for warming the waters of the South Pacific and reducing the force of monsoon winds.

Skymet has forecasted that India will receive only 94% of the long-period average rainfall. Despite the difference in the forecasts, if the rains are distributed spatially and temporally, India's agricultural sector could strengthen, contributing to the nation's economic recovery, especially when the global economy is projected to weaken.

-Mint

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