ALERT: Agricultural Sector To Be Hit By Double Whammy Of Heat And El Nino

El Nino conditions are predicted for 2023. Heat waves of 3 to 5 degrees above normal are expected from March to May. India will undoubtedly experience severe pre and post-monsoon syndrome, affecting agriculture and posing a health risk.

Heat waves can cause crop damage and reduce winter crop production in FY23. However, food grain production is restricted from March to May. Furthermore, we have a high level of reservoirs, timely cultivation, and robust irrigation. Rabi cultivation is very good in FY23, minimizing the impact. However, as reported in 2022, an abnormal increase in temperatures will have an impact on crops, fruits, vegetables, and animals in states, particularly in the northern region. The Union Health Ministry has issued a heat wave warning for March through May.

El Nino could also have an impact on Kharif production in FY24. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's February forecast, El Nino could return as early as June. According to the IMD, El Nino will be at a "neutral level" for the next three months. Its true impact on the southwest monsoon will not be known until April when the first long-term monsoon forecast will be released.

The point to remember is that the monsoon is critical for India's foodgrain production, as approximately 50% of cropped areas in the country are rainfed. Heatwaves and El Nino have an impact on food grain production, according to 38 years of data from 1977-1978 to 2014-2015.

El Nino conditions typically result in less rainfall and uneven distribution. El Nino occurrences range from two to seven years; the average is three to four years, resulting in a 9.7% decrease in normal rainfall and a -5.7% decrease in kharif foodgrain production. This has an impact on the agricultural sector's growth, as well as the country's overall GDP growth. During El Nino periods over the last 40 years, India's GDP growth rate was 5%, compared to 6.6% during non-El Nino periods. However, this correlation has weakened as the agricultural sector's share of the economy has fallen to 14% and other sectors such as services have grown. Unfortunately, agriculture still employs two-thirds of the population.         

The fear for rabi production in FY23 is minimal, with reliance on the final phase of harvest. However, cultivation and harvesting in the next three months will have consequences for fruits and vegetables as well as livestock. A combination of low rabi production in FY23 and kharif production in 2024 could have a significant impact on foodgrain inflation, which is already high. Despite predictions of crop damage due to heat in March, the union government is expecting record output in rabi. However, climate experts say the next few weeks are critical, and temperature spikes could harm yields.

The national weather service forecasted above-normal maximum temperatures for most of the country in March, April, and May, warning of heatwaves. According to official data, the number of states experiencing frequent heatwaves has more than doubled to 20, indicating the effects of climate change. The government has urged states to keep an eye on food stocks to keep prices under control and to plan larger procurement operations to help farmers and prepare for the El Nino effect next year. FMCG, fertilizer, sugar, dairy, and rural consumptions such as two-wheelers will be the most affected.

Source:- The Economic Times 

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