Indian Agriculture Poised for Growth in FY24, 3% Growth Expected Despite Monsoon Concerns

Despite initial worries about an unpredictable monsoon and the El Niño weather phenomenon, Ramesh Chand, a NITI Aayog member, offers a more optimistic perspective for India's agriculture in the fiscal year 2023-24.

He envisions a growth of over 3%, slightly lower than the 3.5% in the previous year. Chand credits this positivity to factors like expanded irrigation and beneficial early winter rains in northern India and Kerala. While the uneven southwest monsoon might impact crop yields somewhat, Chand believes the overall effect won't be substantial, potentially easing food prices. He predicts food inflation to hover around 5-6% in the coming months, suggesting a potential softening in food prices.

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Chand dispels the earlier apprehensions about El Niño's potential adverse effects on the agricultural sector, indicating that the anticipated disruptions have not materialized. He attributes this resilience largely to India's increased focus on irrigation, which has seen a remarkable 7% expansion in irrigated areas over the past seven years.

Additionally, the country has benefited from timely and beneficial early winter rains, particularly in the northern regions. These factors collectively serve to protect India's rain-dependent crops better.

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He also extends his commendation to the Indian government for its prompt actions in addressing surging food prices, particularly for items such as tomatoes. The timely interventions have played a crucial role in maintaining stability and alleviating some of the inflationary pressures associated with essential food items.

Looking ahead, Chand notes that no urgent interventions are necessary at this point. The government will monitor the evolving situation and contemplate administrative, export, or import measures based on weather conditions and other influences. Favorable monsoon and strategic actions should help maintain stability in India's agriculture sector and food prices.

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