India Anticipates Normal Monsoon, Relieving Concerns Over Growth

India heavily depends on rainfall for its water needs, and there have been concerns over the impact of the monsoon on agriculture production and economic growth. However, the official India Meteorological Department has forecasted that the June-September rainy season is expected to be normal, with showers likely to be 96% of the long-term average.

Although the El Nino weather condition, which is usually caused by warm water in the equatorial Pacific, could affect the monsoon during the second half of the season, it has been taken into consideration in the forecast. This news brings potential relief to the agricultural and economic sectors in India.

The livelihood of hundreds of millions of farmers in India, which is the third-largest economy in Asia, is reliant on the annual monsoon to nourish their fields. A plentiful amount of rain may lead to increased production of essential crops such as rice, soybeans, corn, and sugar cane, thereby reducing food prices and supporting the government's endeavors to regulate inflation.

However, the forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) differs from that of Skymet, a private weather forecaster, which predicted a subpar monsoon. Skymet forecasts that the upcoming season will provide only 94% of the usual rainfall India receives from June to September.

According to the weather department, their forecast has a margin of error of 5%. Rainfall that falls between 96% and 104% of the historical average is within the normal range. Last year's monsoon rains exceeded the average by 2%, resulting in an increase in foodgrain production during the 2022-23 period.

Anubhuti Sahay, the South Asia chief economist at Standard Chartered Plc, based in Mumbai, has pointed out that there is still a risk of lower rainfall according to the probability forecast of IMD. This could lead to inflation hovering around 5.3% in the current fiscal year, with food inflation at 5.7%. The reasons behind this are reduced wheat stockpiles, rising rural wages, and the possibility of lower rainfall. Typically, the monsoon season starts in the first week of June in the southern state of Kerala and then spreads to cover most of the country.

-Bloomberg 

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IMD South-West Monsoon Forecast Will Provide Clarity On El Nino Weather Pattern

Skymet Speculates 'Below-Normal' Monsoon Rains In India This Year