Govt Monitors Agricultural Commodities and Rainfall Progress Amid Delayed Monsoon

In order to stay vigilant regarding the prices of agricultural commodities and closely monitor the progress of the monsoon season, the government has initiated a series of meetings with secretaries and ministers from key departments. These departments include agriculture, food, water resources, and home affairs. These meetings are being held at regular intervals, especially due to the delayed onset of the monsoon in Kerala on June 8, marking the most delayed onset in four years.

Sources familiar with the matter have informed that the agriculture ministry has been conducting multiple meetings with state governments to assess their preparedness regarding the availability of seeds, fertilizers, fodder, and other necessary inputs for the upcoming kharif crops.

Additionally, district-level agricultural contingency plans are being activated in case there is a shortfall in monsoon rainfall. To ensure better coordination at the ground level, state-specific meetings are being organized in collaboration with related ministries such as agriculture, food, water resources, home affairs, and earth sciences.

Representatives from various states including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh have participated in these meetings. Currently, the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), which is affiliated with the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, has updated a total of 514 comprehensive district agricultural contingency plans. These plans provide guidance on suitable crops to be grown, soil protection, and the availability of fertilizers in case there is a deficiency in monsoon rains.

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According to data from the India Meteorological Department, the cumulative monsoon rainfall across the country during June 1-13 has been 55% less than the benchmark. Central India has experienced an even greater deficiency in rainfall, with a recorded shortfall of 76%. Experts have warned that any further distortion in rains could reverse the progress made in lowering inflation, particularly in vegetables and edible oils. It could also keep inflation elevated in cereals, which are currently experiencing double-digit inflation.

To mitigate the possibility of a spike in prices of agricultural commodities, the government has implemented measures such as imposing stockholding limits on pulses and wheat. These measures aim to augment supplies, along with the recent increase in the minimum support price (MSP) of kharif crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, to boost output.

In May, retail food inflation decreased to 2.91%, reaching its lowest level since November 2021, when it was 1.87%. However, inflation in cereals remained elevated in May, standing at 12.65%.

In order to encourage kharif sowing, which has recently begun, the government raised the MSP for key kharif crops in the 2023-24 season (July-June) by 6-10.4%. The largest increase was observed for moong and groundnut.

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Official estimates indicate that rain-fed areas account for half of the net cultivated area and contribute to 40% of the country's food grain production. The southwest monsoon rains, which occur from June to September, contribute approximately 73% of the annual precipitation.

Following the imposition of stock limits for wheat until March 31, 2024—a move that has not been taken since 2008—the government has now instructed states to gather information on grain stocks from wholesalers, traders, retailers, and processors to prevent unfair practices.

A meeting with the states will be held on Wednesday to assess adherence to the stock holding limits for tur and urad, which were announced earlier this month and will be effective until October 31.

The agriculture ministry has estimated an 18.3% decline in tur output and a 3.7% decline in urad output for the 2022-23 crop year (July-June). This translates to 3.4 million tonnes (MT) of tur and 2.7 MT of urad, respectively. In May 2023, retail inflation in tur and urad stood at 16.78% and 4.96% respectively, compared to the previous year.

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